MistaFlava's AFL Aussie Rules Football PLAYOFFS **POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2019 AFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

I haven't posted any bets all season in one of the true hidden treasures in sports betting but might as well now that the playoffs are here. For those who don't follow the sport it's absolutely wild and there are some big time scores. Games are in the middle of the night for most but they are offered in all live betting formats at all books and should be available for pre-game betting as well.

Good luck to anyone who ventures into betting on this sport. It's awesome.

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Thursday, September 5


Elimination Final



West Coast Eagles -28.5 (10 Units)

The defending Champions of the 2018 season are in an Elimination Final instead of a Qualifying Final thanks to their loss in the last week of the regular season. For those who don't know, 8 teams make the playoffs, 4 play in Elimination Finals where the loser goes home and 4 play in Qualifying Finals where the loser plays the winner of the Elimination Final for a spot in the semis. The Essendon Bombers have been awful lately and leading into the playoffs hence the massive line. They come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 and two of those three losses were by 59 or more points (59 against Port Adelaide and 104 against Western Bulldogs). One of the reasons the Bombers were awful the last few weeks is because of injuries and that concern remains heading into this game (massive list of hurt players). This will impact their depth against a very good defensive West Coast Side. Looking back at all of 2019, Essendon have only two wins versus teams who made the playoffs this season. Injuries and an 0-5 SU record in their last five Finals games have the Bombers a big time long shot to win this game.

The West Coast Eagles are defending Champions and they come into this game off two regular season losses but have a pretty decent 20-6 SU record when playing at Optus Stadium and they are also 10-3 SU when playing in Perth in Finals matches. This is a team that can score a bunch of points on opponents and also completely shut down opponents. West Coast comes into this game averaging 9.1 more points per game than Essendon on the season and they are the better defensive team too. Essendon have allowed 87 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, they are struggling big time with injuries on both sides of the ball and there is a good chance West Coast jumps out to a huge lead and never looks back. The Eagles scored 90 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games and three times crossed the 106 point mark in those games. If the Bombers were a bit healthier I would tend to lean on the points but the points are just too tasty for such a mistmatch. Essendon had a nice 8-1 run at some point in the season when they were healthy and that's the only reason they are here right now.

The truth is West Coast has NEVER beat Essendon in a Finals (playoffs) match going 0-5 SU but this is a different team. These are the defending champions and they are coming to play. These two teams met here on June 20 and West Coast beat the Bombers 106-71. West Coast is 8-2 SU versus Essendon in their last 10 meetings and their last four wins have come by an average of 67.0 points per game. What more do you need to know? I'm calling for West Coast to win this big even if it stays close for a while.

Trend of the Game: West Coast is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings with the last four wins coming by an average of 67.0 Points Per Game.


West Coast 98, Essendon 57




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units) with another play coming tonight!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Friday, September 6


Qualifying Final


Geelong Cats -2.5 (10 Units)

The Collingwood Magpies are going to get a lot of attention in this one because they come into this playoff match, where the loser gets another chance and the winner advances to the Semi-Finals, on a four match win streak with wins over Essendon, Adelaide, Melbourne and Gold Coast. That's nice and all but only one of those teams made the playoffs (Essedon) and that team was absolutely mangled in an Elimination Final last night. The last time Collingwood played a real playoff team was ironically the last time they lost as Richmond beat them by 32. The game before that they played another playoff team in Greater Western Sydney and lost that one by 47. What people need to know is that this is a virtual home game for the Magpies and that's why the line is so low. Having said that, Collingwood only played one game at the MCG this season, they were an underdog in that one and they lost. Since the 2017 season Collingwood is averaging something like 87.5 points per game but during that time span when they have played Geelong they have averaged only 56.6 and have lost all those games. In their last three matches before the playoffs Geelong allowed 61, 74 and 14 points in games. They'll be ready.

The Geelong Cats won the regular season which is called a "mini-premier" title but now the real work begins for one of the most cursed playoff teams of the last decade. Kardinia Park is their home and I'm sure they would have preferred to play in front of their 30k fans but the MCG is where this match will be played and they can fit close to 100k in there. The Cats have been favoured in 19 matches this season and have won 14 of the straight up which is a pretty incredible stat. What shocks most of the AFL world is the fact that Geelong have gone just 3-9 SU in their last 12 playoff matches and they can't seem to get over the hump. There is no way this team wants anything to do with having to play an extra game on their way to a possible Championship so winning this one will be a big deal, despite the second chance opportunity. The Cats are not a team that is going to win by scoring 100 points because they managed to do that only 7 times all season and only once in their last 10 games. Collingwood's defense is solid and they rarely allow 100+ points so expect this one to stay somewhat close before the Cats pull away.

So these teams have played each other four times since the start of the 2017 season and Geelong is 3-1 SU in those matches. They have won those matches by an average of 13.0 Points Per Game. When listed as the "Home Team" this season, Geelong is 9-2 SU and have won every single one of those matches by at least 22 points (smallest margin of victory). That's an incredible number even if this match is not in their ideal home. Their fans will be here, they will be loud and Geelong should pull away in the second half and win this comfortably. Collingwood is just not healthy enough.

Trend of the Game: Geelong are 9-2 SU as the "Home Team" this season with smallest margin of victory being 22 points in those matches.


Geelong 78, Collingwood 52





more to come...